'In the Boat'
February 12, 2026

February 12, 2026 - Adapting to Year-to-Year Change on Navajo Lake

Water Temp: 39°F

Conditions: lows in the 30s to highs in the upper 50s, calm and sunny

Every guide who's worth their salt will tell you the same thing: the fish don't read the playbook from last year. But understanding why patterns change separates anglers who adapt from those who keep fishing yesterday's magic spot hoping for different results.

Last winter delivered some incredible bass fishing. From November through January, I had dialed in a pattern that produced daily, with fish at 4+ pounds being the norm rather than the exception. It was the kind of setup every angler dreams about—predictable, productive, and full of quality fish.

Fast forward to this winter, and we have lower, muddy water with the bluegill completely scattered. In October, Navajo experienced a significant rain event that raised the lake over 10 feet in a week. While we're still below last year's overall levels, that rapid influx completely murked up the water in all areas of the lake. Forage that had been concentrated and predictable scattered and shifted their behavior.

When your primary forage base disperses, everything downstream changes. Bass that could hold predictable areas now have to adjust their patterns completely. At 39°F water temps, that's a different game. The use of sonar becomes critically important. 

What I have found this winter are massive concentrations of forage in places I hadn't paid much attention to before, along with some interesting predator dynamics that are influencing where bass are positioning. The pieces are there; it's just a matter of timing and execution. At these cold temps and depths of up to 50 and 60 ft, it takes extreme patience. In 39°F water temps, bass metabolism is at its slowest. They might only feed once every few days. Being on the water during that brief window is everything. 

Every day forward will bring incrementally warmer water from here. By late February and into March, forage patterns will shift again as they prepare for their spawn cycles. That's typically when this fishery lights up—when baitfish start their migrations and bass position to intercept them. Understanding why patterns break is just as important as knowing what works when they don't. 

Navajo is a dynamic, deep, clear reservoir where ecological shifts can completely rewrite the playbook. The challenge—and the reward—is reading those changes and adapting before they become obvious.